Hi first time posting here and looking for some advice and reassurance I'm not going crazy.
Short history - maiden bitch bred last heat to proven stud days 11,13 & 15 all text book with 20 min ties each time. Sadly it appeared I missed her as negative scan at 5 weeks (large breed).
On this season I've gone down the progesterone testing route and to be certain she wasn't super early, had blood taken day 5 to get a baseline result 2.4 Nmols recommended re-test 3-4 days, second test taken day 10 result 8.4 Nmols recommended re-test 2-4 days so moving in the correct direction (next test booked for Thursday). However everything about my bitch screams ready, standing/ flagging/ back up to any heat source or furniture of the correct height you name it..... I have a neutered male at home who she is pestering relentlessly to the point he hides away. My question is could she suddenly spike to the correct levels in the next few days?? (vet says she needs to hit 20 to indicate ready to mate)  my concern is that by the time we hit the the magic number she will no longer be displaying the behavior or be willing with the stud??
Also using the 'at-home' progesterone pads which show no colour change as yet. Should add this is not idexx testing but send to Dick Whites referrals.

Can anyone reassure me that despite my female telling me other wise I should hold my nerve and trust the blood test results?? Stud is approx 4 hours drive away so after receiving results next day I would be travelling 2 days from blood draw....

Thanks in advance!

I am not reassuring you, I am telling you to go to the stud dog now...

I'm even going to hit return on this before typing out my own experience and lengthy explanation why... but suffice to say that if we had followed Idexx's recommendations, we would have missed. 

I would get a progesterone done tomorrow morning, then drive to the stud immediately without the results.  Can you stay nearby for a second mating?  You can get Idexx to phone the results to you if your vet approves this on the form (if vet doesn't Idexx will refuse to give you the results and insist they go to your vet - so they then take longer to get to you) and then you can place your 2nd mating where you need to with the information from that progesterone result...

Will now type out my story as to why...

Ok, here's my story...

Maiden bitch.  Very long (8hr) trip to stud. 

Progesterone on Day 5 was 1.1nmol.  We then had The Weekend Situation:  Larry said "Resampling Friday (result Saturday) is too early.  Leaving until Monday is longer than ideal but may well be ok.  If on Monday she seems receptive, and logistically feasible, mate pending the result of Monday's sample."

Monday (Day 11) we did progesterone again, but - to follow his advice - we then had to leave for the stud without the results.  We got to the stud on Tues morning (Day 12) and had a successful mating with 20min tie.  We went back to our accommodation very happy... only to get what seemed like dreadful results from Idexx, saying it was too early - the 2nd progesterone taken the day before was only 4.9nmol.  Larry said "Resampling on Thursday indicated".

We were now away from our own vet and I didn't want to put her through the stress of going to a strange vet for progesterone, so we decided to schedule the 2nd mating as late as we could that week - Friday - Day 15 and leave it to chance.  (This left 2 clear days between matings, rather than the 1 people usually recommend.)  We went back that day and had another successful mating with another 20min tie - although the stud owner thought she was less into it than the first time.

If we had done what Larry recommended, we would have re-tested Thursday (Day 14), and not got the result for that until Friday (Day 15) and not been able to get to the stud until Saturday (Day 16) - REMEMBER THAT, in what I'm about to say!!

She whelped 7 pups (full term, not premature).  Counting back from that whelping date, we found that she entered diestrus (was no longer fertile and would have refused the stud) on the Friday (Day 15) - the date of her 2nd mating.  The number of days between entering diestrus and whelping is very reliable, within 24hrs - it is one of the most predictable ways of knowing when whelping will occur, if you know when the bitch went into diestrus.  At the time we didn't know - but we worked it out after the fact (out of curiosity), by counting backwards from whelping. 

This all means that she DID ovulate that week, presumably after Mon (Day 11), when her last progesterone was, and before Fri/Sat (Day 15/16) when we now know she entered diestrus.  Moreover, since bitches don't ovulate and then instantly enter diestrus, her levels must have shot up and she must have ovulated a good time before that Saturday.   It shouldn't have been possible for her to go through all the various stages (LH surge, eggs ovulated, eggs matured, eggs fertilisable), that fast, given her Day 11 progesterone result, before Saturday (Day 16) - but she DID.  *BITCHES DON'T READ THE BOOKS!*

I talked about this with the stud owner and she said that although the majority of people get to her in time when using Idexx, the bitches are usually by then at the very end of when they are receptive and are less into it than they are earlier on, and it can be harder to get matings.

I now think:  Progesterone is just one more piece of information and should be used alongside cytology and being aware of behaviour, other experienced stud dogs' reactions and your general 'hunch' about when the right time is - feed the progesterone results into that, but never just go blindly by progesterone alone like a robot - it can definitely fail - as it would have for us, if we had followed Larry's advice and re-tested on that Thursday.... If in doubt, space your matings out so you cover a broader range of windows...

Each time I used idexx my girl missed. I have all the paperwork here and they recommended mating later than the chart I now have. I finally took her to repro vet and got the results the same day who said mate now at a lower reading to what idexx went on.

So it is possible that your girl has a very small window too.
How far do you have to travel? Could you take her now with her showing physical signs of being ready and then take her back on the day the vets are saying she is ready?

Ok so going by experiences above and increased behaviour I have just pad tested her this evening with an immediate colour change so off to stud first thing in the morning! She will be staying for as long as she is still standing, thankful that I had these as well as the blood tests or else I would never have known!
Does anyone have experience of carrying out blood test after mating to check that the bitch certainly ovulated??
We will be going back to vet anyway for Herpes vaccine so not sure if another test is advisable?
Many thanks for all your replies!

The only way would be to do a progesterone test every 2 weeks to make sure her levels don't drop. It's rare but this can be a reason for a bitch not taking and it would likely mean the bitch would need progesterone in oil top ups but speak to a repro vet if you think this is a problem but the progesterone testing post mating is how you know if she's been mated at the correct time and then not taken at the 4 week scan.

The pad tests are not reliable and have no scientific basis or backing - they didn’t work for us.

If progesterone goes over a certain amount, she’s ovulated. That’s how you tell. So you can do another progesterone afterwards to be sure it went over. Sperm lives for 5 days, often a couple days longer if a fertile stud. (Are you using the same stud as last time as his fertility could be an issue for her missing?)

I agree - go and get a mating tomorrow and if you can, keep going till she won’t stand.

Suejaw, do you have the revised table you mentioned for progesterone levels? I’d like to save that...

She will be boarding with the stud for as long as she needs to so I’m hoping that we will be able to cover the right time frame. Pads say she’s ready (stud owner has had good success using these) and bloods were certainly going the right way and her behaviour screams ready, even my neutered Male has shown more interest than normal this evening. I would rather she was there longer and have more chance than risk waiting on bloods and miss again.  Using a different stud this time (last was proven also) so fingers crossed for a better outcome.
She certainly likes to keep me on my toes!!

Did you get a mating yet?!

Not sure how I would go about posting it because we can't do photos on here. If you're on fb send me a pm on here with your name and profile photo and I'll send it that way

Yes one successful yesterday another try tomorrow and if still accepting possibly another Sunday (fingers crossed time)